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Tanteikingdomkey
Joined: 03 Sep 2008
Posts: 2347
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Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2023 1:02 am
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LOOKS at graph......
WHY!!!
can someone please explain this volatility to me
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Nom De Plume De Fanboy
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Joined: 14 Jan 2011
Posts: 615
Location: inland US west, pretty rural
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Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2023 2:49 am
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One explanation is that week to week measurements are so volatile as to be meaningless. The cumulative, 'smoothed' measure is much better at showing what people find to be entertaining, imho.
Why the week to week ratings are so volatile, I don't know. Gaps in production I suspect are part of it this season. Personally, I feel that there is more variation in the types of shows this season, and I think there is more variation in 'quality' in general. But those are just my very subjective feelings.
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Gina Szanboti
Joined: 03 Aug 2008
Posts: 11458
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Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2023 3:02 am
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I don't think we've ever seen swings like this across so many different series before in the weeklies. I'm thinking someone has figured out how to game the system without being detected by present safeguards and are just picking series at random to give a ridiculous boost or bombing for the fun of it. I'm watching over half of these series and there hasn't been the sort of quality or plot variations week to week to justify what we're seeing.
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Stabman
Joined: 13 May 2015
Posts: 22
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Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2023 4:52 am
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Haha, man those Blue Lock yo-yo rankings are insane.
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SHD
Joined: 05 Apr 2015
Posts: 1752
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Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2023 5:04 am
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Stabman wrote: | Haha, man those Blue Lock yo-yo rankings are insane. |
Just came to say that. WTF is going on there? I just checked and neither episode 14 nor 16 were any worse than the others...
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Aerdra
Joined: 02 Feb 2022
Posts: 359
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Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2023 6:10 am
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From the article notes:
Quote: | The rankings indicate relative quality (A is preferred to B), not absolute quality (B is good/bad). While the titles are ranked from 'best' to 'worst', sometimes the difference between #1 and #10 can be very thin. |
Blue Lock had a community score of 4.0 for both episodes 14 and 16, higher than many other shows in those weeks, yet it ranked below most of them. This is probably because the number of viewers is relatively low, and people who gave good ratings to Blue Lock also gave better ratings to other shows.
The weekly rankings have always been volatile. One likely cause is the specific way rankings are calculated:
Quote: | The rankings are computed using the Schulze method, with the variation that unrated titles are considered as abstentions instead of lower than the rated titles. |
Under the normal Schulze method, individual ballots are transitive, but not under this variation. A person who watches shows {A, B, C} and scores them respectively {4.5, 4.0, 3.5} creates a ballot that simultaneously expresses the preferences A > B > C and A = X = C (where X is an unwatched show).
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Erulogos
Joined: 19 Apr 2021
Posts: 29
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Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2023 10:13 am
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Tanteikingdomkey wrote: | LOOKS at graph......
WHY!!!
can someone please explain this volatility to me |
My take on it is that this season is very bunched up in terms of quality and appeal. For example, the current bottom of the barrel shows Iceblade Sorceror and Ningen Fushin are more mid than garbage, while a number of other shows, even highly anticipated ones, have had some production and/or plotting missteps. When the season's rating are basically between 3 star and 5 star, even a half star off due to some budget saving animation or wonky pacing to try to get to the 'good stuff' can cause a huge swing, especially if it happens during a week when other similarly rated shows remain consistent.
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Angel M Cazares
Joined: 23 Sep 2010
Posts: 5466
Location: Iscandar
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Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2023 11:57 am
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To me the cumulative rankings are a truer reflection of what the ANN community thinks. I usually ignore the weekly rannkings because they are not reliable.
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q_3
Joined: 02 Sep 2015
Posts: 149
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Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2023 2:39 pm
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I'm curious where Soaring Sky Precure ends up.
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v1cious
Joined: 31 Dec 2002
Posts: 6211
Location: Houston, TX
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Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2023 3:11 pm
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Poor High Card, that show is fun
I don't get the hate for Trigun Stampede. While i get that it doesn't resemble the original series, what Orange manged to do with it is really good.
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SHD
Joined: 05 Apr 2015
Posts: 1752
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Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2023 3:57 pm
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v1cious wrote: | Poor High Card, that show is fun
I don't get the hate for Trigun Stampede. While i get that it doesn't resemble the original series, what Orange manged to do with it is really good. |
Agreeing on both counts, heh. I'm really enjoying High Card, it's one of my favorites of the season. I don't really get why it seems to be flying under most everyone's radar. (I guess for the pretty boy shipper crowd Buddy Daddies is a more obvious choice, though.)
And Trigun Stampede is I think doing a pretty good job at what it's trying to do. I understand that this is probably not flying well with people who want it to do something else, but as far as I, a fan of Trigun the manga and even more so the old anime, am concerned, it's a perfectly fine version of Trigun.
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NeverConvex
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Joined: 08 Jun 2013
Posts: 2381
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Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2023 6:16 pm
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Aerdra wrote: | The weekly rankings have always been volatile. One likely cause is the specific way rankings are calculated:
Quote: | The rankings are computed using the Schulze method, with the variation that unrated titles are considered as abstentions instead of lower than the rated titles. |
Under the normal Schulze method, individual ballots are transitive, but not under this variation. A person who watches shows {A, B, C} and scores them respectively {4.5, 4.0, 3.5} creates a ballot that simultaneously expresses the preferences A > B > C and A = X = C (where X is an unwatched show). |
This is an odd feature of the ANN variant, although it's not obvious what alternative is better (since the usual method would seem to make it impossible for less watched but highly ranked shows to outcompete highly watched but less well ranked shows, unless I'm misremembering how the Schulze algorithm works).
Why do you think it would generate instability, though? Kind've interesting mathematical conjecture.
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Aerdra
Joined: 02 Feb 2022
Posts: 359
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Posted: Wed Feb 15, 2023 8:30 am
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NeverConvex wrote: |
Aerdra wrote: | The weekly rankings have always been volatile. One likely cause is the specific way rankings are calculated:
Quote: | The rankings are computed using the Schulze method, with the variation that unrated titles are considered as abstentions instead of lower than the rated titles. |
Under the normal Schulze method, individual ballots are transitive, but not under this variation. A person who watches shows {A, B, C} and scores them respectively {4.5, 4.0, 3.5} creates a ballot that simultaneously expresses the preferences A > B > C and A = X = C (where X is an unwatched show). |
This is an odd feature of the ANN variant, although it's not obvious what alternative is better (since the usual method would seem to make it impossible for less watched but highly ranked shows to outcompete highly watched but less well ranked shows, unless I'm misremembering how the Schulze algorithm works).
Why do you think it would generate instability, though? Kind've interesting mathematical conjecture. |
Hmm, now that you mention it, I'm starting to doubt my own conclusion. What I am sure of is that intransitivity in individual ballots increases the probability of intransitivity in the collective result, but I jumped to conclusions in suggesting that intransitivity implies sensitivity.
Perhaps a more likely explanation is that there are many shows with only a modest following, and there are many pairs of shows with relatively few common viewers. It's easy for these pairwise comparisons to change by large percentage margins - potentially creating/destroying/reversing strong Schulze paths - week to week.
I'm not sure whether the normal Schulze method or the ANN variation is better, either, since I can argue for both. Like you said, the normal method is highly disadvantageous to less-watched shows. On the other hand, choosing to not watch a show is also an indication of preference. I was thinking of a compromise of sorts: all unrated episodes are assigned a dummy score (no effect on average community score) of 2.0, but all comparisons with unrated episodes are given a reduced weight of 1/12th of a normal comparison.
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Angel M Cazares
Joined: 23 Sep 2010
Posts: 5466
Location: Iscandar
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Posted: Wed Feb 15, 2023 12:36 pm
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SHD wrote: | And Trigun Stampede is I think doing a pretty good job at what it's trying to do. I understand that this is probably not flying well with people who want it to do something else, but as far as I, a fan of Trigun the manga and even more so the old anime, am concerned, it's a perfectly fine version of Trigun. |
Perfectly fine are pretty strong words for an adaption that isn't even following the manga faithfully.
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bassgs435
Joined: 21 Mar 2015
Posts: 305
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Posted: Wed Feb 15, 2023 12:49 pm
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Angel M Cazares wrote: |
SHD wrote: | And Trigun Stampede is I think doing a pretty good job at what it's trying to do. I understand that this is probably not flying well with people who want it to do something else, but as far as I, a fan of Trigun the manga and even more so the old anime, am concerned, it's a perfectly fine version of Trigun. |
Perfectly fine are pretty strong words for an adaption that isn't even following the manga faithfully. |
This is the thing: It's not suppossed to be following the manga. It's not an adaptation in the modern sense of the word. But more in the style of older works like every Getter anime before Arc, the Cutie Honey shows, Devilman Crybaby (this is one is a mix of faitthfulness and it's own ideas) or the Mazinger anime
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